POLL: How big is the 1M going to be?

[jlspeed29]

It seems like almost every day there are new posts regarding the 1M..at first I wasnt too interested , but I cant seem to stay away

So tell me How big do you think the 1M will be??

[blueshark]

LMAO you're missing a category between "huge" and "so-so."

[jlspeed29]

lol..i didnt know what to put..suggestions?

[blueshark]

I'm thinking... in terms of the original projection of 2,700 worldwide / 600 US.

FLOP = BMW doesn't manage to get 2,700 cars sold within a year.

A SUCCESS = 2,700 cars sell through pretty quickly; cars don't languish on dealer lots. No additional production beyond the planned 2,700.

BIG SUCCESS = BMW scales up production in 2011, and perhaps continues production into 2012, and ultimately sells more than 2,700.

HUGE SUCCESS = M3 level sales (not sure how many that would be... do you know?)

[jlspeed29]

good points..
I wonder what they mean when they say " will be full production but hard to get" wtf does that mean?

[blueshark]

This statement is based on BMW's definition of full production for the 1M as being 60 cars produced per month in Leipzig. Production begins in early March.

Of course, the 1M is proving to be popular, and it appears that more than 60 people would like to take delivery in April, so the result is that most will have to wait. Combine this with the fact that some dealers have higher priority than others with respect to timing and number of allocations, based on their past sales volumes. All these factors translate to the 1M being "hard to get."

Yes, it's a vague statement, but I can tell you that if you wanted to place an order today, you'd probably have to call a lot of dealers to find one with an available allocation in the next 4-5 months.

This is evident in some of the other threads, where people who put down deposits several months ago are being told that they will have to wait until the latter half of 2011 to take delivery.

[Serious]

Most good BMW sports cars are typically flops/slow sellers that aren't appreciated fully until they are out of production.

[jdbunda]

My SA told me that BMW is using some kind of matrix (i.e. favoritism) to allocate slots among dealers. He told me they have 4-5 people on their list, but the waits may be long.

As has been pointed out, at 60/cars a month, it will take six months just to get one car to each US dealer. Note also that 18 months * 60 cars is basically the ~1000 cars for the US, i.e. three per dealer, that were hinted at in early press. So these cars will be so rare that beyond the faithful, few will know about it, what it is, or why they might want it - there won't be demos, showroom cars, or many of them on the street.

But before we get too excited, remember that small production numbers didn't keep E30 M3s from languishing on dealer lots. Niche cars are like that - many potential 1M buyers will be cross-sold a 135i that has the color/equipment/availability/price they want.

[flux]

I think that they are going to be hard to get. Everybody will be on a wait list but not huge because of the post above which seems to be accurate.

[NPVPositive]

It's so easy on this forum to lose sight of the fact that we are a passionate minority. In fact, despite all the hype and noise (hysteria at times!), there are only 77 names on the "deposit thread" list.

Granted, it's a US centric list, but you get the point. Across this entire forum I'd estimate there are less than 150 people with deposits down on a 1M.

At the end of the day this is a wonderful niche vehicle. There just aren't that many people who have the desire or ability to spend a large amount of money on a small, manual transmission BMW.

I firmly believe that this car will sell reasonably well, and BMW will be pleased, but anyone who wants a 1M and is willing to wait 6-9 months will get one. So I think we need another category called "A Success". It won't knock the M3 off its throne, but it will succeed in its target niche.

[blueshark]

Agree. Edited above.

[Drillslinger]

I think the car itself will be a success but to be honest I hope sales are a flop (so that Military Sales gets some allocations and I get the chance to buy one)

[Grey Dove]

Originally Posted by NPVPositive

It's so easy on this forum to lose sight of the fact that we are a passionate minority. In fact, despite all the hype and noise (hysteria at times!), there are only 77 names on the "deposit thread" list.

Granted, it's a US centric list, but you get the point. Across this entire forum I'd estimate there are less than 150 people with deposits down on a 1M.

At the end of the day this is a wonderful niche vehicle. There just aren't that many people who have the desire or ability to spend a large amount of money on a small, manual transmission BMW.

I firmly believe that this car will sell reasonably well, and BMW will be pleased, but anyone who wants a 1M and is willing to wait 6-9 months will get one. So I think we need another category called "A Success". It won't knock the M3 off its throne, but it will succeed in its target niche.

That's exactly what I stated before, we are a minority witch i'm guessing is lower than 5% of actual buyers with an order down. To have any idea on how people react in my country aswell as in some of our neighboring country's, I try to follow up the local forums ( i.e. Germany; The Netherlands Luxembourg; France and Belgium) and nowhere is there so much talk about the car than here on this site. This explains why there are so much non americans posting here.To be on topic again I would like to finalize with the fact that in some country's, I reffered to above, the initial allocations for 2011 where sold out in, give or take, 1 WEEK and the dealers are asking for additional quota. I believe it when they say they will try to meet demand. I'm only affraid that the production period will be to short.

[Oliver1]

Originally Posted by jbunda

My SA told me that BMW is using some kind of matrix (i.e. favoritism) to allocate slots among dealers. He told me they have 4-5 people on their list, but the waits may be long.

As has been pointed out, at 60/cars a month, it will take six months just to get one car to each US dealer. Note also that 18 months * 60 cars is basically the ~1000 cars for the US, i.e. three per dealer, that were hinted at in early press. So these cars will be so rare that beyond the faithful, few will know about it, what it is, or why they might want it - there won't be demos, showroom cars, or many of them on the street.

But before we get too excited, remember that small production numbers didn't keep E30 M3s from languishing on dealer lots. Niche cars are like that - many potential 1M buyers will be cross-sold a 135i that has the color/equipment/availability/price they want.

Isn't that called bait and switch? Is BMW just using the 1M as a marketing tool to get buyers into dealer showrooms?

[Augenbrauezug]

(waves hands in air to begin orchestra, begins singing jaunty tune)

And this is what it looks like when the forum speculates, forum speculates, forum speculates.

This is what it looks like when we all don't have a clue, (someone else with extra deep voice) as far as what BMWs really planning to doooooo.

[E821M]

Originally Posted by jbunda

My SA told me that BMW is using some kind of matrix (i.e. favoritism) to allocate slots among dealers. He told me they have 4-5 people on their list, but the waits may be long.

As has been pointed out, at 60/cars a month, it will take six months just to get one car to each US dealer. Note also that 18 months * 60 cars is basically the ~1000 cars for the US, i.e. three per dealer, that were hinted at in early press. So these cars will be so rare that beyond the faithful, few will know about it, what it is, or why they might want it - there won't be demos, showroom cars, or many of them on the street.

But before we get too excited, remember that small production numbers didn't keep E30 M3s from languishing on dealer lots. Niche cars are like that - many potential 1M buyers will be cross-sold a 135i that has the color/equipment/availability/price they want.

18 months of production? Where did that come from? More like roughly half of that.

[HERR FSTIR]

Originally Posted by NPVPositive

It's so easy on this forum to lose sight of the fact that we are a passionate minority...there are only 77 names on the "deposit thread" list... Across this entire forum I'd estimate there are less than 150 people with deposits down on a 1M...There just aren't that many people who have the desire or ability to spend a large amount of money on a small, manual transmission BMW...anyone who wants a 1M and is willing to wait 6-9 months will get one.

This is a logical and hopefully accurate. But another valid viewpoint is to consider the number of people currently on waiting lists at dealerships in relation to the anticipated number of allocations per dealer.

There are currently 3 people on the waiting list at my dealership which services a population of 700,000 people. Extrapolating this to the entire U.S. (a big assumption to be sure) yields around 1200 people on wait lists nationwide, which far exceeds the reported 600 units intended for the U.S. market. Admittedly this is a very rough approximation as some people will have their names on lists at multiple dealers within a given geographic region. Unless BMW significantly increases production beyond the reported 60 units/month (which will take 6 months simply to supply 1 unit to each dealer), I suspect the car will remain hard to obtain.

Ultimately, in terms of sales figures the car will likely be moderately successful but nonetheless a small volume niche vehicle. However, I think the larger goal is to establish a desirable brand for the next generation, and in that regard I think it will be very successful.

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by HERR FSTIR

This is a logical and hopefully accurate. But another valid viewpoint is to consider the number of people currently on waiting lists at dealerships in relation to the anticipated number of allocations per dealer.

There are currently 3 people on the waiting list at my dealership which services a population of 700,000 people. Extrapolating this to the entire U.S. (a big assumption to be sure) yields around 1200 people on wait lists nationwide, which far exceeds the reported 600 units intended for the U.S. market. Admittedly this is a very rough approximation as some people will have their names on lists at multiple dealers within a given geographic region. Unless BMW significantly increases production beyond the reported 60 units/month (which will take 6 months simply to supply 1 unit to each dealer), I suspect the car will remain hard to obtain.

Ultimately, in terms of sales figures the car will likely be moderately successful but nonetheless a small volume niche vehicle. However, I think the larger goal is to establish a desirable brand for the next generation, and in that regard I think it will be very successful.

Yet another way to look at this, is there are 4 people at my dealership with deposits, one of which is a 1addicts poster (that I know of), putting us at (need I say it) roughly 25%. Still short of the 600 mark.

[///M1]

I guess one needs to define what 'success' really means, who is measuring it, i.e. from whose perspective is it judged by, and what the yardstick/metric is.

If BMW produces say 1000 overall, sells all of them at a profit with nothing left over, they may consider that a huge success. But if a lot of people were left empty handed, and left feeling 'betrayed' at all the marketing hype that this entry level/cheapest ever ///M/etc. etc. was out of reach and turns them against the brand, is that possibly a flop/failure for BMW?

My point is, success is hard to measure just in tangible terms. I just hope this car delivers all that it has been marketed to be, and all the folks that want one, can indeed get one, and will be happy with their decision of ownership.

[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by Augenbrauezug

(waves hands in air to begin orchestra, begins singing jaunty tune)

And this is what it looks like when the forum speculates, forum speculates, forum speculates.

This is what it looks like when we all don't have a clue, (someone else with extra deep voice) as far as what BMWs really planning to doooooo.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

I want this car really badly myself, but I absolutely hate dealing with dealers. I'm going to wait patiently what happens when the hype dies down. It's very possible I may end up still standing after all the chairs are gone, but that's a risk I am willing to take.

[M3 Adjuster]

Originally Posted by HERR FSTIR

Ultimately, in terms of sales figures the car will likely be moderately successful but nonetheless a small volume niche vehicle. However, I think the larger goal is to establish a desirable brand for the next generation, and in that regard I think it will be very successful.

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

I want this car really badly myself, but I absolutely hate dealing with dealers. I'm going to wait patiently what happens when the hype dies down. It's very possible I may end up still standing after all the chairs are gone, but that's a risk I am willing to take.

Well, I guess not all my jokes are lame

I'm doing the same, I went in fully anticipating putting down a deposit, and backed out due to being sick of all the hype. Don't anyone mention that the deposit is refundable, I know, I just didn't want to be wondering if I'd get my allocation for months.

After seeing what has ensued recently, I'm damn glad I didn't place a deposit. The hype is absolutely ridiculous. If I don't get a new 1m, that's fine with me, I'll buy a used one from one of you saps.