Speculation, speculation, speculation, we want data.

[Augenbrauezug]

Everyone, including me, has been in a pretty big fuss over whether or not we will be able to actually take order of our 1 series M Coupé. There is plenty of speculation both ways as to whether or not production will meet demand. What exactly does 'not limited but hard to get' mean? Does the original number of 2,700 units world wide still hold relevance? Are dealers really going to be leaving people at the door, cash in hand? Will Drillslinger get his 1m?

I've taken a little bit of time on my snow day to put my mind at ease and thought I'd share it with the forums. For simplicity sake I won't be including European, Asian, African, Australian, or Canadian markets in this little blurb. Sorry Canadians, but I'm following BMWs lead with higher prices and no ED, and leaving y'all out in the cold as well.

BMW has released very little figures as to how many 1ms will be sent to the American market. In fact the most concrete data we have of the car, are performance data. While still intriguing it doesn't answer the question we all want the answer to; will we each be getting our own 1m? We are sick of speculation. We want to be able to rest our heads on our pillow each night knowing our very own 1m is on the production line at Leipzig, or at the very least scattered across a warehouse awaiting production.

Before I hop into the numbers I've generated, lets take a look at some facts about the 1 Series M Coupé. The car, which despite most of us never seeing in the flesh, we have fallen so deeply in love with. Specifically lets cross shop it with something most of us can relate to, the 135i.

The 135i MSRP starts at $36,350, 1m MSRP is $47,010. That's roughly a 30% price hike, pretty damn significant. As an enthusiast I'll put aside the fact that in my 135i, I would want DCT, M-Sport, and a few other goodies, and just look at the base price. Again for simplicity sake. It doesn't take a mathematician to tell you that there is a pretty big price descrepency between the two. So let's look at the differences in the two, and see what some pros and cons are. I will not be including any 'emotional' factors such as an M badge, only facts.

The 1m has:
40~ more HP
69~ more fft/lbs of torque (with overboost)
Limited Slip differential
Wider wheel base
Improved suspension
Wider and taller wheels
Lightweight flywheel
New drive shaft
The (arguably) better n54 motor (remember we are cross shopping new ones)
Improved aerodynamics

The 1m lacks:
Moon roof
Exterior Color options
Interior Color options
Optional DCT transmission
Ability to option the car anyway you choose
Cabrio version

I'm sure I missed a few in each category, so sue me.

For us enthusiasts, the extreme minority, the difference is a no-brainer. Moon roof... who cares? Cabrio... yah, like I want a drop top weighing me down. For the average consumer the 1m quickly becomes unacceptable. Most people would assume an LSD is something a hippie would want. A manual transmission, why bother? Let's further this by looking at sales figures for 2008. Although hardly BMWs strongest year, it's still a good indication as it was 'Year One of the 1", also the 335 was still relatively new, as was the e92 body style.

2008 Total Sales Figure: 249,000
1er: 12,018
3er: 112,464
5er: 45,915
6er: 6533
7er: 12,276
z4: 5879 (roadster and coupe)
x3: 17,622
x5: 31,858
x6: 4548

Besides niche markets like the z series and 6 series the 1 series is BMWs least popular model. If you look at just the 1er and 3er, the 1er sales figures pale in comparison. Even BMWs limo out sold our beloved car.

If we further break down the numbers of the 1er we find:

128 coupe: 2897
128 cab: 3755
135 coupe: 3279
135 cab: 2087

It appears this cars primary appear is a cheap entry level vert BMW, 128 cab. Or as an enthusiasts model, 135 coupe, carrying the same motor as found in the 335 and 535, but in a smaller package. This clearly makes the 1er BMWs 'least' popular model excluding the niche market z and the expensive 6 series coupe, convertible, and SAV.

BMW has also been very reluctant to release any sort of production figures regarding American allocations. Sure we've all heard the 2700 limit, and the 60 / month until the end of 2011, but none of it really means much. They have already said that 60 / month is an estimate, maybe more maybe less. No business makes a decision like this without a reason, (get ready for more speculation, so sorry) and I think BMWs unwillingness to tell us how many 1ms we will receive is good news. It pumps up the hype, it creates an unknown variable, it makes us all get off our ass to rush and put down a deposit on a car we've never even seen before. Some are so determined they have even placed multiple deposits with different dealers in different cities. We have all played right into BMW's hand.

There are currently 76 people registered on this forum that have posted in the deposit thread. Out of those 76, a confirmed 16 do no reside in the US. There are a few that didn't post specifics, so let's just stick with that and say 60 people in the US on bimmerpost have placed a deposits. My dealer currently has 4 deposits, I've been busy and haven't been in to place mine, but let's add mine too and bring the number up to 5. Out of those 5 deposits 2 of them are members of this board, myself and SamS. That puts my dealers order bank at 40% bimmer post members, but lets assume that's a liberal figure. In fact let's say us 1addicts account for only 25% of deposits placed, remember this is an enthusiasts car with little publication out about it, most people do not even know it's in the pipes. That puts total deposits at 240, still quite a ways away from the magic number, 600.

I do believe this car will be hard to get, but for those of us that have been following it for sometime now we should have no problem. We are BMWs target audience for this car. While the M badge is certainly a status symbol, something we all want on the back of our car, the Roundel is still a bigger status symbol. The average consumer would never pay $47,010 for a smaller entry level BMW. They wouldn't sacrifice their slushbox, moon roof, power this and power that for some extra ponies, an LSD, and improved suspension.

Those of you who already assumed they would have no problem getting their 1m may see this thread as pointless. Once I started looing at the numbers we have though, I will get a good nights sleep knowing that my 1m will be delivered. It may take awhile, but to me that's a good thing. It will weed out the people who can't wait and opt for a Cayman, or an m3, or whatever else.

Ignore my poor writing skills.

[Alex_bm]

There are already people on this forum with confirmed allocations, it's not a problem

[Dackelone]

I think you should not panic nor loose any sleep over this. My gut feeling is that even BMW doesn't know all the answers. I suspect that by the end of March we will know more about the production numbers/data.

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by Alex_bm

There are already people on this forum with confirmed allocations, it's not a problem

There are many more without. Just furthering the point that there is no need to worry.

Like I said above, Those of you who already assumed they would have no problem getting their 1m may see this thread as pointless.

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by Dackelone

I think you should not panic nor loose any sleep over this. My gut feeling is that even BMW doesn't know all the answers. I suspect that by the end of March we will know more about the production numbers/data.

Loosing sleep was a figure of speech, I sleep quite good at night.

It was stressing though considering that I am planning a vacation around this and am strictly not interested in any other car. If I couldn't get the M I'd keep my 135.

Judging from some of the posts though, it seems people are very worried that their allocation will not be met. I pulled the 'standing at the door with cash in hand' strait from another thread.

[1M Fan]

Originally Posted by Alex_bm

There are already people on this forum with confirmed allocations, it's not a problem

Are there any US members with a confirmed allocation?

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by 1M Fan

Are there any US members with a confirmed allocation?

I think some are confusing a confirmed allocation with being in the order bank. Being in the order bank means nothing, a dealer would but 10,000 people in the order bank if they could collect the deposits and earn interest on them.

Before more people post telling me not to worry, or freak out, or whatever. That was the point of this thread, maybe it wasn't articulated clearly.

[GeniuneSorny]

Just for fun, I'll shoot a couple of holes in your logic...

1) I'm sure plenty of people here (and elsewhere) have a deposit down and haven't checked in in the various deposit threads. I know I'm one (did mine Jan 17).
2) 1M buyers are not necessarily a subset of 1er buyers. I think the 135i is a great car, but I just don't care for the look of it, and I wouldn't have it. I think the 1M is a real beauty, though. It reminds me of the difference between a e46 3er and M3. They lost that with the e9x and lost me as a potential buyer (aside from the fact it's too big and looks like a Grand Prix).

As far as putting yourself at ease about getting one, I think you're fine. As much buzz as there is about this car, I don't think 600 people are going to put in orders before the first one is even delivered. If you pre-order, I feel very confident you'll get one. They won't sit on dealers' floors collecting dust, but there should be plenty to go around. And I think that's what they mean by unlimited but hard to get... You won't be able to stroll into a dealer and pick one up like you can with an M3 nowadays

I guess I'll throw in a little conjecture while we're at it...

Could very well be that the reason they've announced allocation for most everyone except the US is that they're trying to find a way to adjust production capacity to make sure they can meet the demand. Another wrinkle is the CAFE requirements, which are making this a 2011-only model in the US. What if they're going to continue producing the e8x and 1M until March 2012 as a MY2012 car for the rest of the world? In that case, they might over-allocate to the US for 2011, knowing the ROTW gets everything after Dec 2011. We can hope, right?

And be patient... all should be known within the next week.

[Papethova]

I think the base for the 2011 135 is 39,xxx very close to 40k so your base price figure is off... but even bringing the 135 price closer to the 1Ms I still dont see a reason to panic or worry about being left with cash in hand.

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by GeniuneSorny

Just for fun, I'll shoot a couple of holes in your logic...

1) I'm sure plenty of people here (and elsewhere) have a deposit down and haven't checked in in the various deposit threads. I know I'm one (did mine Jan 17).
2) 1M buyers are not necessarily a subset of 1er buyers. I think the 135i is a great car, but I just don't care for the look of it, and I wouldn't have it. I think the 1M is a real beauty, though. It reminds me of the difference between a e46 3er and M3. They lost that with the e9x and lost me as a potential buyer (aside from the fact it's too big and looks like a Grand Prix).

As far as putting yourself at ease about getting one, I think you're fine. As much buzz as there is about this car, I don't think 600 people are going to put in orders before the first one is even delivered. If you pre-order, I feel very confident you'll get one. They won't sit on dealers' floors collecting dust, but there should be plenty to go around. And I think that's what they mean by unlimited but hard to get... You won't be able to stroll into a dealer and pick one up like you can with an M3 nowadays

I guess I'll throw in a little conjecture while we're at it...

Could very well be that the reason they've announced allocation for most everyone except the US is that they're trying to find a way to adjust production capacity to make sure they can meet the demand. Another wrinkle is the CAFE requirements, which are making this a 2011-only model in the US. What if they're going to continue producing the e8x and 1M until March 2012 as a MY2012 car for the rest of the world? In that case, they might over-allocate to the US for 2011, knowing the ROTW gets everything after Dec 2011. We can hope, right?

And be patient... all should be known within the next week.

I'm flattered you referred to my post as logic!

And your right, I didn't account for everything, nor was I really saying all 1m buyers are subsets of 135 buyers, it was just the easiest and most pertinent relation to this situation. This is the first time there has been such a direct competitor to the m3 within BMWs own line up.

The CAFE requirements were something I meant to include in the original post. It just got much more long winded, much quicker than I had meant. I didn't even go back and edit it save changing the word 'height' back to 'hype'. Just punched it out and hit submit.

Per usual, you make great points.

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by Papethova

I think the base for the 2011 135 is 39,xxx very close to 40k so your base price figure is off... but even bringing the 135 price closer to the 1Ms I still dont see a reason to panic or worry about being left with cash in hand.

I took the 135i base price from BMWUSA, and the 1m base price from the thread with the wall papers, videos, and what not.

Is the base for the 1m no longer 47k? My CA said $46k, I figured he had just mis-spoke. That would be great news.

[Papethova]

Originally Posted by Augenbrauezug

I took the 135i base price from BMWUSA, and the 1m base price from the thread with the wall papers, videos, and what not.

Is the base for the 1m no longer 47k? My CA said $46k, I figured he had just mis-spoke. That would be great news.

Look in the 2011 135 thread for the NEW base price

[HERR FSTIR]

You can look at this issue from two perspectives: the demand side (i.e. buyers) and supply side (BMW).

As best can be determined, it appears BMW is planning around 60 units per month for the U.S. market. This number may be increased a bit (perhaps 15%), although given production restraints at Leipzig it cannot be markedly increased. The production period appears fixed since the plant must be retooled in 2012 for the F22. There are potentially further constraints relating to CAFE standards.

So from the supply side there is an upper limit of units which can be produced for the U.S. market which is probably no greater than 1000 vehicles between March and December 2011.

On the other hand, the demand side is more difficult to assess. You can try to use people listed on the deposit thread as a proxy for demand, but that is full of assumptions. Also, as somebody has already mentioned, using 2008 1 series sales data is not terribly reliable since the 1M appeals to a broader audience including disaffected 3 series / M3 owners.

So we can only make quasi-educated guesses about the demand. I would submit that at least 60 comitted U.S. buyers (based on the deposit thread) from an ethusiast website indicates strong demand relative to the number of anticipated production units (10% of 600).

Perhaps the most useful calculation, however, is that 600 production units corresponds to 1-2 cars per dealership over the entire production run. When you consider this, it truly seems availability will be limited.

My advice to you is to place a deposit soon. Sure, BMW might open the production flood gates, and alleviate concerns about availability. But there's no way to know what's going to happen, and it is hard to make a reliable estimate of what demand will be.

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by HERR FSTIR

You can look at this issue from two perspectives: the demand side (i.e. buyers) and supply side (BMW).

As best can be determined, it appears BMW is planning around 60 units per month for the U.S. market. This number may be increased a bit (perhaps 15%), although given production restraints at Leipzig it cannot be markedly increased. The production period appears fixed since the plant must be retooled in 2012 for the F22. There are potentially further constraints relating to CAFE standards.

So from the supply side there is an upper limit of units which can be produced for the U.S. market which is probably no greater than 1000 vehicles between March and December 2011.

On the other hand, the demand side is more difficult to assess. You can try to use people listed on the deposit thread as a proxy for demand, but that is full of assumptions. Also, as somebody has already mentioned, using 2008 1 series sales data is not terribly reliable since the 1M appeals to a broader audience including disaffected 3 series / M3 owners.

So we can only make quasi-educated guesses about the demand. I would submit that at least 60 comitted U.S. buyers (based on the deposit thread) from an ethusiast website indicates strong demand relative to the number of anticipated production units (10% of 600).

Perhaps the most useful calculation, however, is that 600 production units corresponds to 1-2 cars per dealership over the entire production run. When you consider this, it truly seems availability will be limited.

My advice to you is to place a deposit soon. Sure, BMW might open the production flood gates, and alleviate concerns about availability. But there's no way to know what's going to happen, and it is hard to make a reliable estimate of what demand will be.

A good post, but most of what you posted was covered in the post I agreed with that GeniuneSorny made.

As most have stated, including my CA (which is just his opinion, but he's worked with the dealer for 9+ years so I value his opinion), the 1-2 cars per dealer is just assuming that each dealer receives the same allocation. Allocation will be based on a combination of the size of dealer and the number of deposits placed. I highly doubt that BMW will send more cars to dealers than they need, when there are other dealers who are ready to sell the car.

This thread was solely made to alleviate some of the stress others have expressed in waiting to confirm their allocation. Do not take my reply as devaluing your opinion as you make excellent points.

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by Papethova

Look in the 2011 135 thread for the NEW base price

Man I'm really looking. I've tried different search titles and digging around threads. Tried searching 2012 too incase your finger slipped.

Can I get a link? Or maybe you remember a key word that would help my search?

2011 135 brings up a lot of threads on these forums. I've been basing all my calculations on a base of $47k, that would be phenomenal to find it was lower.

[GeniuneSorny]

Maybe your dealer was quoting the base price without destination fee? With the fee, the announced base MSRP was $47010

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by GeniuneSorny

Maybe your dealer was quoting the base price without destination fee? With the fee, the announced base MSRP was $47010

This is what I had thought. Which is fine, it's what I've been using when budgeting for this.

[HERR FSTIR]

Originally Posted by Augenbrauezug

...the 1-2 cars per dealer is just assuming that each dealer receives the same allocation. Allocation will be based on a combination of the size of dealer and the number of deposits placed.

Quite clearly this is true. A large volume dealer in california is expected to receive greater number of allocations than a small volume dealer in north dakota. But the average is what helps provide a general idea of availability at an average dealership, and 1-2 cars per dealer is not a lot. Keep in mind that probably all 365 dealers will receive at least one allocation.

Here's something else to consider in regards to judging the demand side of the equation. My dealer is one of the lowest volume dealerships in the entire U.S and demand would presumably be fairly low. And yet they have had at least two deposits down for over six months (thankfully I'm #1), and they don't expect to receive more than two allocations. Extrapolating the demand present at a tiny low volume dealership to the nation as a whole suggests that demand will be strong.

I'm not trying to stress you out. I'm just attempting to be analytical about this since you seemed to be concerned (rightly so) about availability.

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by HERR FSTIR

Quite clearly this is true. A large volume dealer in california is expected to receive greater number of allocations than a small volume dealer in north dakota. But the average is what helps provide a general idea of availability at an average dealership, and 1-2 cars per dealer is not a lot. Keep in mind that probably all 365 dealers will receive at least one allocation.

Here's something else to consider in regards to judging the demand side of the equation. My dealer is one of the lowest volume dealerships in the entire U.S and demand would presumably be fairly low. And yet they have had at least two deposits down for over six months (thankfully I'm #1), and they don't expect to receive more than two allocations. Extrapolating the demand present at a tiny low volume dealership to the nation as a whole suggests that demand will be strong.

I'm not trying to stress you out. I'm just attempting to be analytical about this since you seemed to be concerned (rightly so) about availability.

Thanks for the info, it makes it easier to judge the situation the more I hear what the situation is with different dealers around the country. I willing be placing my deposit with the highest volume dealer in north Texas. They are also a member of autonation and the GM (apparently) has friends with BMWNA.

I've just been so slammed with the ice storms lately that I've been scrambling to see clients and patients and have had no time to get in to place my deposit. I was hoping to get in tomorrow to do it, but with the ice storm today I am behind yet again!

It's time to invest in a snow mobile or at least a 4x4 truck! Hopefully the ice keeps others from placing a deposit. Although I said this last week and lo-and-behold, someone braved the weather (remember, I'm in Texas and more than a couple inches is braving the weather, hell sub freezing is too) and placed a deposit. Looks like I need to clear a gap in my schedule and make it down to the dealer. Patients actively dieing is one thing, getting my 1m is on a whole 'nother level though!

Kidding!

[Papethova]

Originally Posted by Augenbrauezug

Man I'm really looking. I've tried different search titles and digging around threads. Tried searching 2012 too incase your finger slipped.

Can I get a link? Or maybe you remember a key word that would help my search?

2011 135 brings up a lot of threads on these forums. I've been basing all my calculations on a base of $47k, that would be phenomenal to find it was lower.

Sorry I did mean 2012, I will find the link...

39,925 under specs in the 1st post

http://www.1addicts.com/forums/showthread.php?t=466003

[Augenbrauezug]

Originally Posted by Papethova

Sorry I did mean 2012, I will find the link...

39,925 under specs in the 1st post

http://www.1addicts.com/forums/showthread.php?t=466003

Thanks for the link. Looks like my stupidity got the better of me, I totally thought you were saying the 1m, was closer to $40k. Nearly caused me to have a heart attack.

Your right, $36k, and $40k, does make a substantial difference. Minus value package too. No love from BMW on the 2012s. Makes me feel even better about my decision to get the 1m though!

[HERR FSTIR]

Originally Posted by Augenbrauezug

Thanks for the info...I've just been so slammed with the ice storms lately that I've been scrambling to see clients and patients and have had no time to get in to place my deposit. I was hoping to get in tomorrow to do it, but with the ice storm today I am behind yet again!

I placed my deposit over the phone with a credit card. I would imagine a Texas dealer would provide the same courtesy to you.

Anyway, don't worry too much. At the end of the day money talks. And BMW will probably find a way to take your cash in exchange for an brand new 1M.