real world demand for the 1M

CJF · 01-24-2011, 01:32 PM

I was reading an article in Bimmer Magazine yesterday on the 135i, there was a sidebar which talked about CAFE and production numbers for 2011 1-series cars. The stats said that approximately 9700 1-ers had been sold in the US for the first 9 months of 2011. This includes 128 and 135, both coupe and vert. Furthermore, it said that 2/3 of the units sold were 128 and that roughly a 50/50 ratio of coupes to verts were sold. No specifics on take rate of DCT and 6MT.

I was interested as I think this speaks to potential 1M demand. The math: 9700/3 = 3230 = number of 135 sold. Assume 50/50 coupe to vert spilt = 1615 135 coupes. Mutliply by 12/9 to adjust for total year sales- approxiamtely 2150 135i coupes sold in 2011.

I realize the above makes certain assumptions, but let's assume the numbers are pretty close or at least close enough for the point of this discussion.

If 2150 represents the total yearly demand for a 135i coupe (6MT and DCT), what does this say about 1M demand?

I'm not really interested in debating the pros/cons of the car, but I am interested in getting a better idea of what demand will look like versus production and what this means for allocations, ED, ordering and pricing.

BrokenVert · 01-24-2011, 01:46 PM

Jut FYI 135 coupes to verts is about 60-70% coupes. Less than 1500 135 verts a year are sold.

blacknbean · 01-24-2011, 01:54 PM

it says that 2700-3000 cars for the world is plenty.

GeniuneSorny · 01-24-2011, 02:32 PM

I don't think you can make the assumption that the 1M audience would be a subset of the 1er audience, so it's probably not useful to extrapolate based on those numbers.

I imagine a lot of the potential buyers are people who think the M3 has gotten too big/expensive and think the regular 1er is too girly. Those people (like me) wouldn't be buying a BMW at all if it weren't for the 1M.

That said, the manual-only transmission and price are definitely going to limit the appeal of the car, so the production estimates we've heard will probably be enough to meet demand. And that's what we've been hearing too... they won't make that many, but there should be enough that everyone who wants one should be able to get one...

cracka · 01-24-2011, 02:37 PM

Yeah demand is tough to predict. You need to add 25% to the price and make it 6MT and 3 colors only, but then again it's an ///M and only available for a single year.

I know I want one, so that's 1 down.

discoboy1 · 01-24-2011, 02:42 PM

Myself being a 335 owner, I would never consider buying a 135, but I have a deposit down for 1M...

1mGator · 01-24-2011, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeniuneSorny

I don't think you can make the assumption that the 1M audience would be a subset of the 1er audience, so it's probably not useful to extrapolate based on those numbers.

I imagine a lot of the potential buyers are people who think the M3 has gotten too big/expensive and think the regular 1er is too girly. Those people (like me) wouldn't be buying a BMW at all if it weren't for the 1M.

That said, the manual-only transmission and price are definitely going to limit the appeal of the car, so the production estimates we've heard will probably be enough to meet demand. And that's what we've been hearing too... they won't make that many, but there should be enough that everyone who wants one should be able to get one...

I think your thoughts are right on .... just for the record it's (1M) not just for the "young" folks and a modified (400hp) 1 series is not girlie

... I have an e46m3 (smg) and an x5 and I can't wait to get my hands on this smaller HP/Weight e30 type blast from the past with purpose built suspension and brakes ... I can't wait!!!! I am totally OK with it being hard to get (limited production) BMW could use another "cult" car!!! JOY to all ...

My135 · 01-24-2011, 04:26 PM

If I did not have my 1, I would seriously consider to buy the base 1M. It is hard to beat a 47 K$ 1M given Mustang/Camaro/Challenger top models are selling in the 40-55 K$ range.

hwelvaar · 01-24-2011, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discoboy1

Myself being a 335 owner, I would never consider buying a 135, but I have a deposit down for 1M...

Me too =)

CJF · 01-24-2011, 04:57 PM

does anyone think the car, after a few months, will actually be "hard to get"?

Redadair · 01-24-2011, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discoboy1

Myself being a 335 owner, I would never consider buying a 135, but I have a deposit down for 1M...

Yep, me too!

1M = an M car that's just the right size.

M3 Adjuster · 01-24-2011, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJF

does anyone think the car, after a few months, will actually be "hard to get"?

In most cases, no, after a few months the hype is gone and cars are readily available. But this is a very limited production time wise.. it's not like plans are for the car to be made for the next 7 years..

sbike · 01-24-2011, 05:30 PM

Well BMW claims production will not be limited. So presumably while in production (for the short production run) they will make more if needed.

The production cycle is supposed to be March 2011 to Dec 2011?

Hopefully the next version will start Jan 2012 and will include DCT.

Dackelone · 01-24-2011, 05:48 PM

OP - your numbers sound about right to me. When I toured the Leipzig factory last year - they said the factory's e82/e87/e88 (two door hatches are built in Regensburg) production breaks down like this:

25% for Germany
25% for USA/Canada
25% for EU
25% for the RoW (Rest of the World)

Dackel

PS: Here is my Liepzig factory tour writeup:

http://www.1addicts.com/forums/showt...g+factory+tour

M3 Adjuster · 01-24-2011, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sbike

Well BMW claims production will not be limited. So presumably while in production (for the short production run) they will make more if needed.

The production cycle is supposed to be March 2011 to Dec 2011?

Hopefully the next version will start Jan 2012 and will include DCT.

Correct- March 2011 to December 2011. The next version will be on the next chassis. While it is possible that a 2012 model *could* be made starting in 2012, the car would then have to have the N55 motor... and with the next generation 1 models coming, I personally don't think it would be a wise bet to wait for a 2012 model.. or DCT.. or blue.

And of course.. based on the info here... http://www.e90post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=478254

E81/E87 1 series to end production by August 2011 (new 1-series hatchback launched after Geneva)
E82/E88 1 series to end production in 1st Quarter 2012

I would have to say the chances of a 2012 model, or blue.. or DCT approach nil.
I think it's really easy for those of us in the U.S. to forget that 1 series production began in 2004.

BlackFlash · 01-24-2011, 05:56 PM

I'd say that 6MT only is going to temper the demand more than anything.

Dackelone · 01-24-2011, 06:00 PM

^^I thought Scott26 said once the current e82 1M goes out of production in Dec, 2011... it will be two(?) years before the F20 1M version will be out. Sure... BMW will be building bread and butter F20's 128is & 135i's... but no M model one series for a period of time.

Did I get that wrong?

M3 Adjuster · 01-24-2011, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dackelone

^^I thought Scott26 said once the current e82 1M goes out of production in Dec, 2011... it will be two(?) years before the F20 1M version will be out. Sure... BMW will be building bread and butter F20's 128is & 135i's... but no M model one series for a period of time.

Did I get that wrong?

no.. that makes perfect sense. 2013 models of the second next generation 1 series (F20) will begin production in 2012...And then the corresponding M car usually has a 1 year delay after the regular version..which would make it a 2014 model with 2013 production at the earliest.

1M Fan · 01-24-2011, 10:58 PM

I too was cross shopping a Cayman S and M3, so I wouldn't have bought a 135 without putting serious mods to it. Probably won't mod the 1m...much! It won't need it for my driving.

Diver · 01-25-2011, 09:50 AM

Outside of Europe, the 1 series is a niche car. The 1M is in an even smaller niche. At $50k there is the choice of some wild machinery, but you get to hold your nose when bringing it in to a Chevy or Ford dealer. Don't forget the entire sports car ande high performance segment has shrunk in recent years with green becoming the in thing. Sometimes I think the 135i is a sports car for someone who does not want to be seen in a sports car.

I wonder how profitable the 1M will be for BMW. The costs have been held down by using existing components, but there has been fair amount of new bodywork and modifications to the M3 frame to make everything fit.

Could this be a halo car with most of the benefit being a boost in European sales?

Technic · 01-25-2011, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJF

does anyone think the car, after a few months, will actually be "hard to get"?

The 1M will be sold in the USA the exact same way that the M3 is sold... not having any at the dealer sitting there doing nothing. The vast majority will be sold by order. You will see a few at the dealer lots for the first month and then they will disappear.

So no, they will not be "hard to get".

CJF · 01-25-2011, 10:18 AM

you got it right- niche within a niche. cult car anyone?

01-24-2011, 01:32 PM	#1
CJF Private First Class 16 Rep 113 Posts Drives: White machine Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: CA iTrader: (0)	real world demand for the 1M I was reading an article in Bimmer Magazine yesterday on the 135i, there was a sidebar which talked about CAFE and production numbers for 2011 1-series cars. The stats said that approximately 9700 1-ers had been sold in the US for the first 9 months of 2011. This includes 128 and 135, both coupe and vert. Furthermore, it said that 2/3 of the units sold were 128 and that roughly a 50/50 ratio of coupes to verts were sold. No specifics on take rate of DCT and 6MT. I was interested as I think this speaks to potential 1M demand. The math: 9700/3 = 3230 = number of 135 sold. Assume 50/50 coupe to vert spilt = 1615 135 coupes. Mutliply by 12/9 to adjust for total year sales- approxiamtely 2150 135i coupes sold in 2011. I realize the above makes certain assumptions, but let's assume the numbers are pretty close or at least close enough for the point of this discussion. If 2150 represents the total yearly demand for a 135i coupe (6MT and DCT), what does this say about 1M demand? I'm not really interested in debating the pros/cons of the car, but I am interested in getting a better idea of what demand will look like versus production and what this means for allocations, ED, ordering and pricing.
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01-24-2011, 01:46 PM	#2
BrokenVert Resident Kerbalnaut 477 Rep 10,703 Posts Drives: Topless Brute/Hybrid Boogaloo Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Fahrvergnügen/NY iTrader: (0)	Jut FYI 135 coupes to verts is about 60-70% coupes. Less than 1500 135 verts a year are sold. __________________
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01-24-2011, 01:54 PM	#3
blacknbean Major 14 Rep 1,044 Posts Drives: e92 335i 6MT Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: LA iTrader: (2)	it says that 2700-3000 cars for the world is plenty.
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01-24-2011, 02:32 PM	#4
GeniuneSorny Private 4 Rep 56 Posts Drives: 1M on order Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Texas iTrader: (0)	I don't think you can make the assumption that the 1M audience would be a subset of the 1er audience, so it's probably not useful to extrapolate based on those numbers. I imagine a lot of the potential buyers are people who think the M3 has gotten too big/expensive and think the regular 1er is too girly. Those people (like me) wouldn't be buying a BMW at all if it weren't for the 1M. That said, the manual-only transmission and price are definitely going to limit the appeal of the car, so the production estimates we've heard will probably be enough to meet demand. And that's what we've been hearing too... they won't make that many, but there should be enough that everyone who wants one should be able to get one...
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01-24-2011, 02:37 PM	#5
cracka Captain 26 Rep 780 Posts Drives: VO 1M Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: DFW iTrader: (0)	Yeah demand is tough to predict. You need to add 25% to the price and make it 6MT and 3 colors only, but then again it's an ///M and only available for a single year. I know I want one, so that's 1 down.
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01-24-2011, 02:42 PM	#6
discoboy1 Lieutenant Colonel 121 Rep 1,555 Posts Drives: E82 1M VO/F30 328D Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Montreal iTrader: (3)	Myself being a 335 owner, I would never consider buying a 135, but I have a deposit down for 1M... __________________ 2011 E82 1M VO 2013 F84 35i VO
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01-24-2011, 04:26 PM	#8
My135 Lieutenant Colonel 85 Rep 1,609 Posts Drives: Join Date: Mar 2008 iTrader: (0)	If I did not have my 1, I would seriously consider to buy the base 1M. It is hard to beat a 47 K$ 1M given Mustang/Camaro/Challenger top models are selling in the 40-55 K$ range. __________________ 7/08 135 Coupe, Crimson Red, 6 SP, Sport, Taupe Lette/Aluminum. Performance Mods: JB4 on Map 5, BMS DP Fix V3, Injen polished intake, AR Catless DP, Maddad resonated mid-pipes, aFe exhaust polished tips, ST Suspension Coil Over and Hotchkis front sway bar. Others: BMS OCC, BT Scanner, Mud Flap. Next Mods: AA Front Strut Brace.
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01-24-2011, 04:57 PM	#10
CJF Private First Class 16 Rep 113 Posts Drives: White machine Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: CA iTrader: (0)	does anyone think the car, after a few months, will actually be "hard to get"?
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01-24-2011, 05:30 PM	#13
sbike New Member 3 Rep 19 Posts Drives: WRX, hoping for 2 series. Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: California iTrader: (0)	Well BMW claims production will not be limited. So presumably while in production (for the short production run) they will make more if needed. The production cycle is supposed to be March 2011 to Dec 2011? Hopefully the next version will start Jan 2012 and will include DCT.
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01-24-2011, 05:48 PM	#14
Dackelone European Editor 10589 Rep 22,992 Posts Drives: N54 e82 Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Bayern, Germany iTrader: (1)	OP - your numbers sound about right to me. When I toured the Leipzig factory last year - they said the factory's e82/e87/e88 (two door hatches are built in Regensburg) production breaks down like this: 25% for Germany 25% for USA/Canada 25% for EU 25% for the RoW (Rest of the World) Dackel PS: Here is my Liepzig factory tour writeup: http://www.1addicts.com/forums/showt...g+factory+tour
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01-24-2011, 05:56 PM	#16
BlackFlash poseur (for now) 2 Rep 210 Posts Drives: a piece-o-crap Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Canada iTrader: (0)	I'd say that 6MT only is going to temper the demand more than anything.
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01-24-2011, 06:00 PM	#17
Dackelone European Editor 10589 Rep 22,992 Posts Drives: N54 e82 Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Bayern, Germany iTrader: (1)	^^I thought Scott26 said once the current e82 1M goes out of production in Dec, 2011... it will be two(?) years before the F20 1M version will be out. Sure... BMW will be building bread and butter F20's 128is & 135i's... but no M model one series for a period of time. Did I get that wrong?
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01-24-2011, 10:58 PM	#19
1M Fan SMSgt 11 Rep 239 Posts Drives: AW 1M Coupe Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: USA, TN iTrader: (0) Garage List 1012 F150 [0.00] 1971 Chevrolet Nova [0.00] 2011 1M [0.00]	I too was cross shopping a Cayman S and M3, so I wouldn't have bought a 135 without putting serious mods to it. Probably won't mod the 1m...much! It won't need it for my driving.
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01-25-2011, 09:50 AM	#20
Diver Brigadier General 504 Rep 3,446 Posts Drives: Black '12 135i - Sold Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Texas iTrader: (0)	Outside of Europe, the 1 series is a niche car. The 1M is in an even smaller niche. At $50k there is the choice of some wild machinery, but you get to hold your nose when bringing it in to a Chevy or Ford dealer. Don't forget the entire sports car ande high performance segment has shrunk in recent years with green becoming the in thing. Sometimes I think the 135i is a sports car for someone who does not want to be seen in a sports car. I wonder how profitable the 1M will be for BMW. The costs have been held down by using existing components, but there has been fair amount of new bodywork and modifications to the M3 frame to make everything fit. Could this be a halo car with most of the benefit being a boost in European sales? __________________ See my photography at http://ronscubadiver.wordpress.com
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01-25-2011, 10:18 AM	#22
CJF Private First Class 16 Rep 113 Posts Drives: White machine Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: CA iTrader: (0)	you got it right- niche within a niche. cult car anyone?
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