Should I buy an M3 or M4 given the current market & new G80?

[Mdotlife]

Hey everybody,

Originally I was looking for a used C63 AMG coupe but the prices are too high currently. So I am looking for either an M3 or an M4. I can get some nice models, 15’ plate with around 30k Milage for around £35k.

My question is, should I be worried about depreciation? I’m probably only going to keep the car maybe 1-2 years which is why I’m buying used and I don’t want to lease. In 1-2 years, if C63 prices have dropped I may consider it until then. I know the new shape M3 (G80) is coming out in 2020 , is there any sign of a new M4? M4s don’t seem to be holding their value as well as the F80 but is that going to change?

Currently, I’m driving a 15 plate 335d with M Performance decals and exterior styling. I want something a bit more sporty. I understand all cars depreciate, but I lost around 15k in 2 years with my 335d (bought it at 1.5 years old and bought for £30k with 28k on the clock. Currently been valued at between £15-16k with 41k mileage). I don’t want to lose thousands by buying an M car which then plummets. I feel like the main depreciation has already occurred but I’ve never bought an M car before so not sure what to expect.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Also, I am seriously considering a C63. If I waited until they drop to £35k, would it be a good idea to buy an M car in the mean time (always wanted one and always wanted a C63 as well) or should I stick with my 335d?


Many Thanks if you read this until the end.

[BluM4]

The depreciation in the US will be different than the UK for sure. I expect my 2016 F82 will depreciate from $48k today to be around $32-35K in two years. It will then stay around $25k for another two years or so, as long as I keep the mileage reasonable.

[YG]

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[Mdotlife]

Originally Posted by YG

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[Mdotlife]

Originally Posted by BluM4

The depreciation in the US will be different than the UK for sure. I expect my 2016 F82 will depreciate from $48k today to be around $32-35K in two years. It will then stay around $25k for another two years or so, as long as I keep the mileage reasonable.

Thanks for the reply mate

[paliknight]

With the depreciation hit you took on your 335, I wouldn't do it. That's a major loss. You're looking at 35k out of pocket to get into the M4 (15k depreciation+20k price difference). It's not worth it IMO. I'd suggest test driving one though and determine that yourself.

The new M4 should be put a year or so after the new M3.

To give you an idea, my 2016 M4 was 82k MSRP. Purchased end of 2015 for 73k (new). In mid 2017, it was worth 55k with 16k miles. US market though.

[Prossx]

15k depreciation for 13k miles is a little rough. The question might be how much deprecation plus costs such as sales tax can you stomach amortized across the use of the car (miles).

Plus you are considering a G80 and C63 so that will be in the back of your mind the whole time after you took that huge hit to buy the M4. I'd wait...a year or two goes by pretty quick.

[RickFLM4]

Depreciation isn't losing money like buying a stock, the price of which then declines. It is the cost of using or holding something as it ages. I would not expect an M4 to cost little or nothing to use for a year or two. There will be thousands in depreciation. You can look back to prices of older M3 coupes to get an idea.

[Mdotlife]

Originally Posted by paliknight

With the depreciation hit you took on your 335, I wouldn't do it. That's a major loss. You're looking at 35k out of pocket to get into the M4 (15k depreciation+20k price difference). It's not worth it IMO. I'd suggest test driving one though and determine that yourself.

The new M4 should be put a year or so after the new M3.

To give you an idea, my 2016 M4 was 82k MSRP. Purchased end of 2015 for 73k (new). In mid 2017, it was worth 55k with 16k miles. US market though.

Thanks for the reply. You may be right, however the only valuations I have had is through online agents (In UK, we have a company called WeBuyAnyCar in which you punch in your reg and it gives you a valuation which may go up or down depending on a physical inspection at one of their stores). I reckon I could get a bit more part ex through a dealer (which is what I’ll do - I only got online valuations for an estimate. Unfortunately, looking online at cars for sale similar to mine, traders are selling them for around £20k. That would make the valuation fairly accurate but let’s be honest, it’s not going to be significantly more .

[Mdotlife]

Originally Posted by Prossx

15k depreciation for 13k miles is a little rough. The question might be how much deprecation plus costs such as sales tax can you stomach amortized across the use of the car (miles).

Plus you are considering a G80 and C63 so that will be in the back of your mind the whole time after you took that huge hit to buy the M4. I'd wait...a year or two goes by pretty quick.

Fair point my friend, but I don’t want to wait !

(Apologies, that was the non-adult, immature side of me coming out)...

[Mdotlife]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Depreciation isn't losing money like buying a stock, the price of which then declines. It is the cost of using or holding something as it ages. I would not expect an M4 to cost little or nothing to use for a year or two. There will be thousands in depreciation. You can look back to prices of older M3 coupes to get an idea.

Yeah, I have looked at the older M3 coupes and some of them are cheap as chips at 5/6 years old (around £20k and upwards). If I bought an M3 or an M4, the car would be around the same age (5-6 yrs old) when I come to sell it. However, the new M3/M4 did come out around 2014 to replace the previous generation so surely prices would not deteriorate as much as long as the new generation hasn’t been released yet. Would the G80 also affect the prices of the M4? Unfortunately it’s hard to tell what will happen (so in that regard, it sort of is like the stock market, except you’re only trying to reduce your loss rather than make any money - unless you’re buying classics)

[mmmmQuattro]

Originally Posted by Mdotlife

My question is, should I be worried about depreciation? I’m probably only going to keep the car maybe 1-2 years which is why I’m buying used and I don’t want to lease. In 1-2 years, if C63 prices have dropped I may consider it until then)

Generally you are going to lose money on new/ newish cars. Some 911R's are the exception - get over it, or drive something cheaper.

Don't buy the car you don't want now and settle, because you can't afford the one you want and will be able to afford in a couple of years - it makes no financial sense.

It's not like you are dreaming of a McLaren or Lambo that's way more expensive.

What you have to consider is to change, it will cost you - With interest rates below 6%, an extra 10k will cost you less than 1,000 GBP / year. Which is a lot less than the depreciation rate of an M4.

I would either lease / borrow more and get the C63 now and keep it for 5 years or so.
Otherwise, sell the 335d and get something cheaper and fun for a couple of years (eg: Audi S3), save your money and look forward to the C63.

[TXSoxFan]

One other thing to consider. Personally, I would not buy the first year of a new model, as it seems that the first year has significantly more problems/issues that tend to get worked out by the time the second year of the model comes around, especially when it is a new engine.

This would add an additional year to your timeline and maybe change the math. Just something to think about.

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by CASoxFan

One other thing to consider. Personally, I would not buy the first year of a new model, as it seems that the first year has significantly more problems/issues that tend to get worked out by the time the second year of the model comes around, especially when it is a new engine.

This would add an additional year to your timeline and maybe change the math. Just something to think about.

That has not been the case at all with the F8x (nor the E9x M3s). In fact, i would say that's rarely the case for most models. I would have no problem with getting a first year G80.

[TXSoxFan]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

That has not been the case at all with the F8x (nor the E9x M3s). In fact, i would say that's rarely the case for most models. I would have no problem with getting a first year G80.

From my readings/research on BMWs in general (mostly via forums) I would disagree, but admit it is anecdotal evidence, not backed by hard and fast data.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by CASoxFan

From my readings/research on BMWs in general (mostly via forums) I would disagree, but admit it is anecdotal evidence, not backed by hard and fast data.

I had no problems whatsoever with my MY2015 M4., the first MY sold in the U.S.

[Alpine300zhp]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

I had no problems whatsoever with my MY2015 M4., the first MY sold in the U.S.

I second this. Mine was perfect for 53k miles. Only issue was with rotors that vibrated and needed replacement.

[Aus_M]

I would never get a first model year, had major recalls/issues on 3 first model year M cars. Generally the second production year and on is reliable

[mastermav]

It took them awhile to narrow down the firmware with M3/M4, all those traction issues,etc

[HiFi]

Just had it confirmed from a dealer that the G80 M3 wont be hitting till 2021...!
im based in Australia so that may mean late 2020 availability for US/EMEA but still. tht is a significant amount of time with no M3 availability...
This is not a rumor, this is from a BMW bulletin i have sighted which also includes release of the new G20 platform late in Q3 this year, and wait for it... M340i in xdrive only...