[JD6]

Watching Newsnight, David Aaronovitch made the point that if (and it is a big if) there was to be a second referendum on the final terms, the demographic make up of Leave/Remain voters would shift the balance from Leave to Remain.

The underlying basis for this was that a high proportion of old people voted Leave, while younger people voted Remain, so many more Leavers die each year. By his estimation, this demographic shift alone would shift us from 52/48 to 49/51. This ignores the opinion shift which seems to be moving that way a little too.

It still seems more likely, even to a Remainer like me that we don’t get a second referendum and that we leave (but probably in a soft Brexit way) but a second referendum (and this time it’s final ) can’t be ruled out, particularly as Labour seem to be slowly shifting in that general direction.

I look forward to an even-handed response from Lobb

[454697819]

How dare you even mention a second referendum you left wing pansy why you ought to be refused a new blue passport and taken out side and spanked by her majesty mrs may blah blah blah more right wing spouting crap blah blah

[teaston]

Yea but as some old people die, some young people become old to fill their place!

[JD6]

Originally Posted by teaston

Yea but as some old people die, some young people become old to fill their place!

Yep fair point. I did wonder about this - people do in general get more right wing as they age and acquire stuff. Not sure if people would move in the direction of Leave though...

[Darth Helmut]

As old people die, the younger people won't be arsed to get out of bed and vote as a second referendum will have peaked their limited attention span.

The balance will be restored.

[JD6]

Originally Posted by Lobb

Any questions?

Thanks for clearing that up!

[mikeoz]

Originally Posted by teaston

Yea but as some old people die, some young people become old to fill their place!

That's what I was thinking... General Election results would change if his theory rang true..?

[....,,,,..,,..]

One of the slightly unsupported 'myths' (it relied on a very small survey and was predominantly uni towns and London) is that a huge number of young people voted remain.

Equally unsupportable is that a large number of under 25's in West Midlands voted leave (that's from a chat at a couple of large companies including where I work (90 x under 25's).

All 90 voted leave, whereas most of us old fuckers voted remain.

I am fed up with the entire Brexit bollox, the majority of press and people given air time want remain, however they never ever seem to bring anything useful to discussions other than acting like moaning fuckers.

I voted remain and believe once things are in motion the entire country, especially press, MPs and business leaders actually contribute positively to the process or just shut the fuck up.

[Edinburra]

Why is it that losers always want a replay?

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by Lobb

- We leave at 23.03.2019

Any questions?

Just one m'Lobb, what have you done with your standard copy and paste reply?

You've taken six days off the date

[JD6]

Originally Posted by Brigand

One of the slightly unsupported 'myths' (it relied on a very small survey and was predominantly uni towns and London) is that a huge number of young people voted remain.

I don't think it's a myth that young people favoured Remain and elderly, Leave.

Of the 30 areas with the most elderly people, 27 voted Leave. And a substantial survey of 12,000 voters showed that 73% of 18-24 year olds voted Remain and 60% of those aged 65+ voted Leave. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36619342

Incidentally, of the 30 areas with the fewest graduates, 28 voted Leave, which doesn't come as a huge surprise

[ciscopete822]

Originally Posted by JD6

I don't think it's a myth that young people favoured Remain and elderly, Leave.

Of the 30 areas with the most elderly people, 27 voted Leave. And a substantial survey of 12,000 voters showed that 73% of 18-24 year olds voted Remain and 60% of those aged 65+ voted Leave. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36619342

Incidentally, of the 30 areas with the fewest graduates, 28 voted Leave, which doesn't come as a huge surprise

deffo not a myth - I am in early 30s and can tell that not even 1 of my friends voted to Leave. Even this forum confirms that , most of folks shouting to leave are folks with higher mileage - with all due respect. Such a shame but well , decision has been made. I have started up couple of businesses in Europe and if it goes the way it goes... I will join my brother in Marbella , Spain in 2019.

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by Edinburra

Why is it that losers always want a replay?

Just like that bloody Muhammad Ali, moaning fucker. He should have just accepted that Joe Frazier, Leon Spinks and Ken Norton were better than him.

After all, what chance of winning the rematches could he have?


As for Brexit, let's not forget that halfway through the count the Leave campaign thought they were going to lose and were already announcing that they planned to continue to fight for another referendum.

Does democracy usually work whereby the losing party just shuts up shop forever and decides the other party was right after all?!

[JD6]

Is it wrong for me to hope for a cold winter and a hot summer to shift the balance a bit quicker?

[MashinBenzin]

Originally Posted by JD6

Is it wrong for me to hope for a cold winter and a hot summer to shift the balance a bit quicker?

This is a good point imagine where we would be now if the winter of 2015/2016 had been a touch harsher!

[Darth Helmut]

Originally Posted by MashinBenzin

This is a good point imagine where we would be now if the winter of 2015/2016 had been a touch harsher!

Yes, all the sub 25 year olds would have stayed in bed wearing their onsies....

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by Darth Helmut

Yes, all the sub 25 year olds would have stayed in bed wearing their onsies....

Excellent point, what's it got to do with the referendum though, that was in June?

[Darth Helmut]

Originally Posted by Alex440

Excellent point, what's it got to do with the referendum though, that was in June?

Keep up and read the previous...

[....,,,,..,,..]

Originally Posted by JD6

I don't think it's a myth that young people favoured Remain and elderly, Leave.

Of the 30 areas with the most elderly people, 27 voted Leave. And a substantial survey of 12,000 voters showed that 73% of 18-24 year olds voted Remain and 60% of those aged 65+ voted Leave. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36619342

Incidentally, of the 30 areas with the fewest graduates, 28 voted Leave, which doesn't come as a huge surprise

What I was referring to was the entire carte blanc reasoning that a poll of 14.000 (that's what Ashcroft refers to) is used to justify the statement used in the press and everyone that 73% of young people wanted to remain, that's just bollox.

The breakdown of that 14,000 is something like 1300 18-24 year olds.

It's the usual stats bollox used to represent xx million people's views.

We all know how bollox the polls have been for ellections etc for last 10 plus years.

Yes a large number of young people will have voted remain, but I very much doubt it was 73% of the entire 18-24 year olds voted remain. This is the same age group that has the highest reported sexually transmitted diseases, the highest level of criminal charges, the highest level of debt, the highest failure rate in interviews.

So the use of myth is just saying that basing everything on selective stats can be misleading.

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by Darth Helmut

Keep up and read the previous...

I am keeping up. Their point was that more old people would have died during a harsh winter and therefore wouldn't have been able to vote in the referendum......in June.

Your response seemed to suggest that this would have been cancelled out by the younger generation hiding from the same cold winter in bed wearing onesies.......which doesn't make sense when the referendum was in the summer.

Try and keep up, and at least make your banter relevant.

[Goneinsixtyseconds]

Originally Posted by Brigand

What I was referring to was the entire carte blanc reasoning that a poll of 14.000 (that's what Ashcroft refers to) is used to justify the statement used in the press and everyone that 73% of young people wanted to remain, that's just bollox.

The breakdown of that 14,000 is something like 1300 18-24 year olds.

It's the usual stats bollox used to represent xx million people's views.

We all know how bollox the polls have been for ellections etc for last 10 plus years.

Yes a large number of young people will have voted remain, but I very much doubt it was 73% of the entire 18-24 year olds voted remain. This is the same age group that has the highest reported sexually transmitted diseases, the highest level of criminal charges, the highest level of debt, the highest failure rate in interviews.

So the use of myth is just saying that basing everything on selective stats can be misleading.

Dismissing the polls as not being 100% reliable doesn't make them untrue.

The result itself, which we keep getting told cannot be argued with, tells the same story.

Only 2 out of 30 areas with the most pensioners living in them voted remain.

Only 3 out of 35 areas where more than half the people have degrees voted to Leave.

There is a pattern to the voting, there are particular demographics that voted in the main in certain ways. Of course everyone can quote silly exceptions, well, Paul and Sarah down the road are both 25 and both voted Leave, great, but it doesn't change anything about the majority of that age group.

[Darth Helmut]

Originally Posted by Alex440

I am keeping up. Their point was that more old people would have died during a harsh winter and therefore wouldn't have been able to vote in the referendum......in June.

Your response seemed to suggest that this would have been cancelled out by the younger generation hiding from the same cold winter in bed wearing onesies.......which doesn't make sense when the referendum was in the summer.

Try and keep up, and at least make your banter relevant.

Happy New year you massive underpant....