[Tengocity]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30827910

Looks like the next few years are the time to have a petrol engined car!

Now, what are those M5's going for?...

[Nick the Greek]

Told You.

[....,,,,..,,..]

A lot depends on who blinks first.

As mentioned a number of fields will not be profitable to run and could be mothballed for a bit.

The fallout from this 'oil war' is likely to be felt for a while.

I can see something happening in Venezuela, that is one seriously messed up country - even more so since Chavez 'quit'.

Russia is taking a big hit, especially as it's stuck with its OPEC 'brethren'.

However, the U.S. can only drop it so far, while Saudi can and probably will slam the price to the floor, they only need to do it for 6 months.

Their oil minister has said $20 a barrel is possible.

The Ruble is pretty much in free fall, hopefully taking their 'Captain' with it.

[Tengocity]

If there is oversupply then no matter what the Saudis do now, if the price goes up then those fields will come back online.

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Originally Posted by Tengocity

If there is oversupply then no matter what the Saudis do now, if the price goes up then those fields will come back online.

There will be no over supply though, China and India can consume whatever is sent there way.

The big thing will be just how much the American government and banks can prop up their oil side of things (shale fields in US and Canada).

Certain low prices are likely to be unsustainable.

However in the mean time it's excellent.

3 years of this will be great for some market sectors.

[rich100]

Just hope it doesn't precipitate another financial crash.

Many of the shale oil companies are heavily leveraged collectively to the tune of some $200bn. With the price of all oil low and still seemingly falling a fair chunk of that debt could end up being defaulted on and send the markets into a tailspin as a result.

On the flip side it is nice to have a much lower petrol price

[Steve_M_Sport]

Nearly worth thinking about a 335i instead of a 330D ?

[Tengocity]

Originally Posted by Brigand

There will be no over supply though, China and India can consume whatever is sent there way.

The big thing will be just how much the American government and banks can prop up their oil side of things (shale fields in US and Canada).

Certain low prices are likely to be unsustainable.

However in the mean time it's excellent.

3 years of this will be great for some market sectors.

I mean oversupply in the context of trying to maintain a $100 barrel price.

Saudi will try to cripple the shale oil which is creating the oversupply relative to their target price.

But if they do and the price goes back up then it will kick back up again.

Ultimately it will settle in between where it is now and the previous prices I reckon.

[....,,,,..,,..]

Originally Posted by Tengocity

I mean oversupply in the context of trying to maintain a $100 barrel price.

Saudi will try to cripple the shale oil which is creating the oversupply relative to their target price.

But if they do and the price goes back up then it will kick back up again.

Ultimately it will settle in between where it is now and the previous prices I reckon.

I think previously when we had these tiffs, any changes to try and keep oil at a set level.

OPEC have cut production, however this time round we have the North american (cartel) kicking out as much as they can.

The Saudi lot have refused to cut production and are effectively over supplying.

In the past this would mean a large glut, however this time round China can buy up a fair bit (although their 'recession' is biting them a bit).

Or that is my layman take on it all.

I just want cheap fuel again

[KevinLevin]

Originally Posted by rich100

Just hope it doesn't precipitate another financial crash.

Many of the shale oil companies are heavily leveraged collectively to the tune of some $200bn. With the price of all oil low and still seemingly falling a fair chunk of that debt could end up being defaulted on and send the markets into a tailspin as a result.

On the flip side it is nice to have a much lower petrol price

My thoughts exactly.

[JustChris]

Fingers crossed for 3 years! Happy with a bonus year though

[Nick the Greek]

Some of the "bears" are taking oil futures for June at $20 / barrel!

Now, were is that M3 brochure?

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Originally Posted by Nick the Greek

Some of the "bears" are taking oil futures for June at $20 / barrel!

Now, were is that M3 brochure?

Nah, you really want the Mustang 5.0 V8

[jusdorange]

I just wished duty would fall too...

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Lest we forget about some of those who will be directly impacted by the oil price fall.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...iness-30817678

Some will be due to on going 'restructuring' however a lot is likely a lot of energy companies tightening their budgets.

[ewanmac]

I work in Aberdeen and invest in oil & gas service companies so am probably one of the few on the forum who would prefer the oil price to be higher!

As has been mentioned, the low price is all down to excess supply in the market. Normally OPEC would cut output to increase prices, however, they want to hurt the US shale bonanza. The US is now self sufficient and may even start exporting which OPEC want to reverse. If you look at the US rig counts, drilling is already reducing as the number of drilling rigs is reducing weekly.

While Saudi can handle a low oil price due to the wealth of the country, a lot of other OPEC members are hurting badly as they are making a significant loss on every barrel of oil they sell.

I personally think the price of oil will increase again this year although I don't think we have seen the trough yet. I don't, however, think it will increase to $104 which has been the average over the past 4 years. My guess is $70-$80 by the year end.

I also think things will be volatile before they stabilise again.

[....,,,,..,,..]

Originally Posted by ewanmac

I work in Aberdeen and invest in oil & gas service companies so am probably one of the few on the forum who would prefer the oil price to be higher!

As has been mentioned, the low price is all down to excess supply in the market. Normally OPEC would cut output to increase prices, however, they want to hurt the US shale bonanza. The US is now self sufficient and may even start exporting which OPEC want to reverse. If you look at the US rig counts, drilling is already reducing as the number of drilling rigs is reducing weekly.

While Saudi can handle a low oil price due to the wealth of the country, a lot of other OPEC members are hurting badly as they are making a significant loss on every barrel of oil they sell.

I personally think the price of oil will increase again this year although I don't think we have seen the trough yet. I don't, however, think it will increase to $104 which has been the average over the past 4 years. My guess is $70-$80 by the year end.

I also think things will be volatile before they stabilise again.

Pretty much how I see it one exception.

The U.S. can use this as a weapon against Russia and Venezuela ( to lesser extent Iran).

The entire Russian and Venezuelan economy relies on oil and gas.

Remember the Russians recently signed a deal with China, they stand to lose a fair bit of wonga on that.

The Americans will be looking at costs of support for troops and carrier battle groups for support to Baltic States (and Ukraine) versus cost of supporting their energy production.

It costs a fair bit of money and people to keep the current QRA Cap going in Lithuania / Poland, far cheaper to hamstring the Bear.


Now if Saudi were supporting the U.S.........

Nice conspiracy theory.

It also impacts ISIS as well, they are already selling oil very cheap.

Just remember there is likely more happening than cheap fuel for our cars.

[ewanmac]

Very conceivable Brigand!

[Andrewthefirst]

Originally Posted by Brigand

Pretty much how I see it one exception.

The U.S. can use this as a weapon against Russia and Venezuela ( to lesser extent Iran).

The entire Russian and Venezuelan economy relies on oil and gas.

Remember the Russians recently signed a deal with China, they stand to lose a fair bit of wonga on that.

The Americans will be looking at costs of support for troops and carrier battle groups for support to Baltic States (and Ukraine) versus cost of supporting their energy production.

It costs a fair bit of money and people to keep the current QRA Cap going in Lithuania / Poland, far cheaper to hamstring the Bear.


Now if Saudi were supporting the U.S.........

Nice conspiracy theory.

It also impacts ISIS as well, they are already selling oil very cheap.

Just remember there is likely more happening than cheap fuel for our cars.

Great post. The truth is probably even more fantastical than those suggestions.

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Originally Posted by Andrewthefirst

Great post. The truth is probably even more fantastical than those suggestions.

Yeah, there is / was other stuff going on.

There were people within the DoD making comments over oil prices late 2014.

Hit someone with sanctions (especially top people with financial ones), then pull the rug by hitting their money making ability is a very good way of getting what you want.

[DaveA]

Originally Posted by jusdorange

I just wished duty would fall too...

Yes, but I think that's unlikely, given that we need all the revenue we can get at the mo'...

Would certainly be nice to pay less duty, though, wouldn't it.. I've just been on an assignment in Florida and I filled up the rental car before handing it back (about 8 or 9/10ths of a tank full) for £16.05.... $2 (and change) per US Gallon....

[TonyS]

Originally Posted by Tengocity

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30827910

Looks like the next few years are the time to have a petrol engined car!

Now, what are those M5's going for?...

Surely it's always been the time to have a petrol engined car...