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      10-27-2020, 12:38 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by jmg View Post
Infection rate (per 100k)

CA: 2245
FL: 3550
TX: 2997


https://www.statista.com/statistics/...americans-by-s

And you are criticizing California's covid response? I think you just have it out for CA. That's fine, just ask yourself why.
And? 3% versus 2.2% infected for a respiratory virus that doesn't kill healthy people or young people? California has a higher death rate in that case bc both states have the same amount of deaths. Why are you allowing so many deaths with your wonderful response?

Yes, I'm criticizing them for a marginal benefit that may or may not even be attributable to lockdowns and destroys so many people in meaningful and preventable ways.

I have it out for them because they are taking away the livelihood of thousands in an already poorly managed state where money is extremely important.
That's per capita. If you look at that table, California is far far far from the worse. I would personally need more metrics before I make a claim criticizing a state like North Dakota for example. Fortunately I don't have any predispositions regarding the people of North Dakota to condemn them.
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      10-27-2020, 12:59 AM   #68
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Again, most of the fires are on FEDERAL land. (1.1 mil acres of federal land vs 700k acres on state land burned in CA in 2020). It is the same across the country. More federal land is burned than state land overall (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF10244.pdf). If there is mismanagement, then the federal government has a bigger share of the blame than local governments, but playing the blame game doesn't solve problems. I'd rather think of solutions.

Here is the CA budget proposal:

https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4172

CA is a large state with 5 major cities and a lot of infrastructure to support. It seems you know exactly what to do if you were in charge and you can guarantee success. I encourage you to present your budget proposal in Sacramento and perhaps run for office.
I'm not pretending to know the solution. Even forgetting the federal land, you have a big problem. It's not my responsibility to figure out how to fix it...it's your state's and they've done a pisspoor job, like they have with your jobs. That's all im saying.
North Dakota and South Dakota have some of the lowest unemployment rates in the US.... and are the highest in infection rates per capita.

The majority of fires in CA are federal land. It's LITERALLY NOT the states job to manage wildfire prevention in those areas.

Not only that, what are you comparing CA's performance in wildfire management to? Certainly not a state like FL, which has a totally different climate and landscape.

Hmmm..

We have an ideal comparison right here in CA-federally managed National Parks. Two different bodies in the same region dealing with the same problems. Guess what: the federal government isn't doing any better.
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      10-27-2020, 12:59 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by RMachuca3d View Post
Logic has escaped this thread sadly.

There are two schools of thought, one is preventative, the other wants to deal with the aftermath.

One saves more lives to begin with, the other does not, I'll let you guess which is which.
The real world isnít a 1 or 0. There are consequences to every decision, including the one you think is so logical.
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      10-27-2020, 01:02 AM   #70
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North Dakota and South Dakota have some of the lowest unemployment rates in the US.... and are the highest in infection rates per capita.

The majority of fires in CA are federal land. It's LITERALLY NOT the states job to manage wildfire prevention in those areas.

Not only that, what are you comparing CA's performance in wildfire management to? Certainly not a state like FL, which has a totally different climate and landscape.

Hmmm..

We have an ideal comparison right here in CA-federally managed National Parks. Two different bodies in the same region dealing with the same problems. Guess what: the federal government isn't doing any better.
Infection rates aren’t some big OMG scare factor for reasons I’ve already been over. You can accept them or continue to dwell on cases counters. H1N1 had 70M US cases and a completely different death count methodology.

I’m comparing a burning state to states which don’t burn.

Not your job so let your state burn? OK.

The federal government is trash too. We agree on that.
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      10-27-2020, 01:10 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
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Originally Posted by jmg View Post
North Dakota and South Dakota have some of the lowest unemployment rates in the US.... and are the highest in infection rates per capita.

The majority of fires in CA are federal land. It's LITERALLY NOT the states job to manage wildfire prevention in those areas.

Not only that, what are you comparing CA's performance in wildfire management to? Certainly not a state like FL, which has a totally different climate and landscape.

Hmmm..

We have an ideal comparison right here in CA-federally managed National Parks. Two different bodies in the same region dealing with the same problems. Guess what: the federal government isn't doing any better.
Infection rates aren't some big OMG scare factor for reasons I've already been over. You can accept them or continue to dwell on cases counters. H1N1 had 70M US cases.p and a completely different death count logic.

I'm comparing a burning state to states which don't burn.

Not your job so let your state burn? OK.

The federal government is trash too. We agree on that.
It's literally illegal for the state to have control over federal land without approval. What are you saying? We should violate federal law?

Not sure if you know this but there are already talks for more coordination between state and federal agencies for wildfire prevention in CA.

I'm comparing apples to apples. Hawaii isn't going to burn not because they have good wildfire management. It's a wet climate. Just as CA doesn't have world class Polar Bear management- there's no polar bears here. So again, what are you comparing CA to? The weather is dry and hot with lots of forestry. There are going to be much more fires here than a state like Florida. Comparing "states that burn to states that don't burn" is counterproductive. That makes no sense.

You choosing to ignore infection rates doesn't make them invalid. You accuse CA for letting it burn, yet infection rates which have killed more people than wildfires are not important enough to be considered? Seems like cherry picking.
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      10-27-2020, 01:26 AM   #72
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Can anyone help me understand why the only thing talked about/shown on media is the upward rate of growth in COVID cases without a mention of the current mortality rate or hospitalizations? A reasonable person would think that those last two would be critical toward understanding the current state of this pandemic and how we should respond.

See recent piece with data gathered from Covidtracking.com. Note orange vs blue lines.
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      10-27-2020, 01:56 AM   #73
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Can anyone help me understand why the only thing talked about/shown on media is the upward rate of growth in COVID cases without a mention of the current mortality rate or hospitalizations? A reasonable person would think that those last two would be critical toward understanding the current state of this pandemic and how we should respond.

See recent piece with data gathered from Covidtracking.com. Note orange vs blue lines.
If certain conspiracies are to believed then the early reports are padded. Now people want to stop testing or reporting at all. What's to be believed?

Edit- it could also be that early cases were more concentrated in the elderly and immunocompromised which makes sense. We are basically the survivors of that early wave, so our fatality rate will be different.
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      10-27-2020, 07:53 AM   #74
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It's really pretty simple, if you do a short, sharp lockdown you can all but snuff this thing out but no you gotta go half arse it and re-open too early then it drags on for months on end.

Life is pretty much back to normal in Australia with no virus circulating, picking people off. I use AUstralia as the example as NZ has far, far less air traffic so easier to shut it down arly.
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      10-27-2020, 10:45 AM   #75
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It's really pretty simple, if you do a short, sharp lockdown you can all but snuff this thing out but no you gotta go half arse it and re-open too early then it drags on for months on end.

Life is pretty much back to normal in Australia with no virus circulating, picking people off. I use AUstralia as the example as NZ has far, far less air traffic so easier to shut it down arly.
We're Americans. Leave your logic and science witchcraft out of this! Jesus and guns are all we need.
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      10-27-2020, 11:24 AM   #76
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It's really pretty simple, if you do a short, sharp lockdown you can all but snuff this thing out but no you gotta go half arse it and re-open too early then it drags on for months on end.

Life is pretty much back to normal in Australia with no virus circulating, picking people off. I use AUstralia as the example as NZ has far, far less air traffic so easier to shut it down arly.
Australia is nothing like the US. Itís basically a large island with a couple cities. Australiaís entire population is 50% smaller than California. You have far less in and out travel compared to Europe and the US.

Your virus status is likely more geographical and a result of a large country with small population than anything youíve done particularly well.
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      10-27-2020, 11:28 AM   #77
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It's literally illegal for the state to have control over federal land without approval. What are you saying? We should violate federal law?

Not sure if you know this but there are already talks for more coordination between state and federal agencies for wildfire prevention in CA.

I'm comparing apples to apples. Hawaii isn't going to burn not because they have good wildfire management. It's a wet climate. Just as CA doesn't have world class Polar Bear management- there's no polar bears here. So again, what are you comparing CA to? The weather is dry and hot with lots of forestry. There are going to be much more fires here than a state like Florida. Comparing "states that burn to states that don't burn" is counterproductive. That makes no sense.

You choosing to ignore infection rates doesn't make them invalid. You accuse CA for letting it burn, yet infection rates which have killed more people than wildfires are not important enough to be considered? Seems like cherry picking.
Again, youíre asking me for solutions. If your state is burning, federal or not, your leaders need to work that out, right? If my neighbor sets his lawn on fire...itís not my land, but I have an interest in making sure he stops.

Plus, the land you do control continues to burn, which demonstrates you couldnít handle it either way
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      10-27-2020, 01:20 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Australia is nothing like the US. Itís basically a large island with a couple cities. Australiaís entire population is 50% smaller than California. You have far less in and out travel compared to Europe and the US.

Your virus status is likely more geographical and a result of a large country with small population than anything youíve done particularly well.
Sydney and Melbourne metro areas would be the 6th and 7th largest in the USA. We also had a significant breakout in melbourne with 700 cases a day and got it down to 0 as of yesterday.

Chinese travel to Australia is monumental.

Truth is, they moved early, shut the border hard, enforced a policed 14 day quarantine and snuffed it out. These were all options other countries could have taken but either didn't or did not do them for long enough or with enough enforcement (the quarantine of incoming travelers is absolutely vital).

We are now in a position to recover the ecomony and go about life relatively normally whist the rest of the world will be stuck dealing with this thing in a half arsed manner.
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      10-27-2020, 01:36 PM   #79
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We're Americans. Leave your logic and science witchcraft out of this! Jesus and guns are all we need.
In my couple of years residency here in this fine forum, I think this is my favorite post.
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      10-27-2020, 02:35 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
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Originally Posted by jmg View Post
It's literally illegal for the state to have control over federal land without approval. What are you saying? We should violate federal law?

Not sure if you know this but there are already talks for more coordination between state and federal agencies for wildfire prevention in CA.

I'm comparing apples to apples. Hawaii isn't going to burn not because they have good wildfire management. It's a wet climate. Just as CA doesn't have world class Polar Bear management- there's no polar bears here. So again, what are you comparing CA to? The weather is dry and hot with lots of forestry. There are going to be much more fires here than a state like Florida. Comparing "states that burn to states that don't burn" is counterproductive. That makes no sense.

You choosing to ignore infection rates doesn't make them invalid. You accuse CA for letting it burn, yet infection rates which have killed more people than wildfires are not important enough to be considered? Seems like cherry picking.
Again, you’re asking me for solutions. If your state is burning, federal or not, your leaders need to work that out, right? If my neighbor sets his lawn on fire...it’s not my land, but I have an interest in making sure he stops.

Plus, the land you do control continues to burn, which demonstrates you couldn’t handle it either way
It's real easy to criticize when you don't even have a solution. At this point we are arguing in circles and I don't think you are even reading my replies anymore.
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      10-27-2020, 04:57 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
It's really pretty simple, if you do a short, sharp lockdown you can all but snuff this thing out but no you gotta go half arse it and re-open too early then it drags on for months on end.

Life is pretty much back to normal in Australia with no virus circulating, picking people off. I use AUstralia as the example as NZ has far, far less air traffic so easier to shut it down arly.
Australia is nothing like the US. It’s basically a large island with a couple cities. Australia’s entire population is 50% smaller than California. You have far less in and out travel compared to Europe and the US.

Your virus status is likely more geographical and a result of a large country with small population than anything you’ve done particularly well.
Australia does a good job: "it's geographical, and nothing to do with how you dealt with it"

California does a bad job: "it has nothing to do with geography and everything to do with how you dealt with it"

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      10-27-2020, 05:06 PM   #82
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Australia does a good job: "it's geographical, and nothing to do with how you dealt with it"

California does a bad job: "it has nothing to do with geography and everything to do with how you dealt with it"

More people moving out than in. Defend that. And perhaps more importantly, tons of businesses leaving too. Lately and over the past several years.

It's a big state. A lot of good, but its fair share of bad too. The negative remarks are largely fair and valid. You can say similar things about NY, particularly NYC.
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      10-27-2020, 05:42 PM   #83
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More people moving out than in. Defend that. And perhaps more importantly, tons of businesses leaving too. Lately and over the past several years.
Maybe it's the fires and "lockdowns".

My post was aimed at covid and wildfire responses. The arguments are contradictory and cherry picking.

But if want to change the subject, that's fine:

Economic osmosis. Property/taxes gets too expensive, people/businesses leave. If too many businesses leave, then the state attracts with incentives. It's all a natural cycle of economics and capitalism. CA is still highly desirable because of location and talent pool. People generally want to live here even if its expensive, and these people are desirable by employers, or they start their own businesses.

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It's a big state. A lot of good, but its fair share of bad too. The negative remarks are largely fair and valid. You can say similar things about NY, particularly NYC.
I never said there wasn't anything bad. Some of the negative remarks are valid, but a lot of them lack perspective, especially the wildfire and covid ones. People who live out of state criticizing a state with an entirely different geography than theirs. They compare "states not on fire" to "states on fire" without regard to the rainfall and geography in those states. Dry weather, heat, valley winds, low humidity areas with lots of vegetation are going to have a different risk factor for fire than a wet, flat, cooler state.

That's just geography. Throw in a desirable weather and people wanting to live here but can't really afford it and you net poverty and overpopulation. Then you the perpetual nature of diversity. The more diverse the people, the more comfortable other people of similar ethnicities will be to live there as well. Now you have racial tension.

With fair weather you get a population of homeless that can make it through winter without dying and thus attracts more homeless people from around the country.

How can anyone fairly compare CA to a state with: wet weather and very little wildfires, cold winters that discourages the homeless, and a diverse dense population?
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      10-27-2020, 05:51 PM   #84
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Quote:
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Australia does a good job: "it's geographical, and nothing to do with how you dealt with it"

California does a bad job: "it has nothing to do with geography and everything to do with how you dealt with it"

Maybe... I think with Australia it's more a population density thing than a geographical thing. I mean I think they are in like the top 5 or 10 least densely populated countries. Easy to distance yourself when your closest neighbor is 20 miles away. We see that here where Miami and Dade county are the worst hit and more rural parts of FL barely have anything even though they are not doing squat shit.

However even if it's not CAs fault. It doesn't make it any better. I mean FL is hot as fuck in the summer... if you have issues with heat I'm not gonna sit here and say welllll you know.... it's Floridas geography.... not its fault.... it's still awesome. No. It's hot as fuck all and if you don't like the heat it sucks ass. If you like the heat and jumping in the pool or going to the beach on a hot day it's awesome.

If you like forest fires, high taxes, crazy energy prices with rolling blackouts, water shortages, etc.... CA is awesome sauce!

I like San Diego... if they forced me to move to CA that's where I would go... assuming I could even afford a house there... or my electric bill.
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      10-27-2020, 10:38 PM   #85
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Quote:
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Australia does a good job: "it's geographical, and nothing to do with how you dealt with it"

California does a bad job: "it has nothing to do with geography and everything to do with how you dealt with it"

What? I never said California was doing poorly on actual Covid stats bc of how they dealt with it. I said it’s doing almost no better than Texas and Texas is far more open, so the rationale to be so stubborn with opening up is dubious. I originally criticized not allowing Disney to open in Anaheim, which I explained was open elsewhere and not linked to any worse situation than what is already present in California.

Personally, I believe almost nothing we do impacts Covid much. It’s out and will do what it does. Anyone doing “better” is likely benefiting from geographical or other advantages (generally luck) we don’t understand and we don’t control.
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      10-27-2020, 11:08 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
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Originally Posted by jmg View Post
Australia does a good job: "it's geographical, and nothing to do with how you dealt with it"

California does a bad job: "it has nothing to do with geography and everything to do with how you dealt with it"

What? I never said California was doing poorly on actual Covid stats bc of how they dealt with it. I said it's doing almost no better than Texas and Texas is far more open, so the rationale to be so stubborn with opening up is dubious. I originally criticized not allowing Disney to open in Anaheim, which I explained was open elsewhere and not linked to any worse situation than what is already present in California.

Personally, I believe almost nothing we do impacts Covid much. It's out and will do what it does. Anyone doing "better" is likely benefiting from geographical or other advantages (generally luck) we don't understand and we don't control.
I'm talking about wildfires in CA. You say it's geography in Australia with covid. When I say it's geography in CA with wildfires you can't put it together.

But to your point, CA isn't doing much better but like you said, it's more dense, so we should be doing worse. But we're not.

And you are wrong. People understand epidemiology. It's understood.
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      10-28-2020, 12:51 AM   #87
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I'm talking about wildfires in CA. You say it's geography in Australia with covid. When I say it's geography in CA with wildfires you can't put it together.

But to your point, CA isn't doing much better but like you said, it's more dense, so we should be doing worse. But we're not.

And you are wrong. People understand epidemiology. It's understood.
You’re dreaming if you think just because epidemiology is a field, we fully understand how covid spreads and why it’s worse in certain areas.

As I said, Australia is doing better with Covid bc of geography, but California isn’t doing poorly enough to keep Disney and others closed. Everything isn’t comparable...just bc Australia is doing better today doesn’t mean California should be held to that standard. It may be unattainable and out of control bc of the geography, as one example.

On the other hand, the fires are arguably bad enough that California should take better steps for prevention, bad geography or not. It’s the state’s problem and each state has its own challenges. The housing, electricity, and air quality concerns are other examples.

It’s all about what makes sense. People of California deserve to work, not have their land burning, decent air quality, affordable housing, and electricity. Covid is far down the list of your problems but you’re treating it like public enemy #1 and it’s killing people. They also aren’t working in a vacuum without consequences. Your actions for Covid have dramatic impacts to the people of your state.

Last edited by BayMoWe335; 10-28-2020 at 01:06 AM..
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      10-28-2020, 02:07 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by jmg View Post
I'm talking about wildfires in CA. You say it's geography in Australia with covid. When I say it's geography in CA with wildfires you can't put it together.

But to your point, CA isn't doing much better but like you said, it's more dense, so we should be doing worse. But we're not.

And you are wrong. People understand epidemiology. It's understood.
You're dreaming if you think just because epidemiology is a field, we fully understand how covid spreads and why it's worse in certain areas.

As I said, Australia is doing better with Covid bc of geography, but California isn't doing poorly enough to keep Disney and others closed. Everything isn't comparable...just bc Australia is doing better today doesn't mean California should be held to that standard. It may be unattainable and out of control bc of the geography, as one example.

On the other hand, the fires are arguably bad enough that California should take better steps for prevention, bad geography or not. It's the state's problem and each state has its own challenges. The housing, electricity, and air quality concerns are other examples.

It's all about what makes sense. People of California deserve to work, not have their land burning, decent air quality, affordable housing, and electricity. Covid is far down the list of your problems but you're treating it like public enemy #1 and it's killing people. They also aren't working in a vacuum without consequences. Your actions for Covid have dramatic impacts to the people of your state.
You telling CA to solve its wildfire problem is like telling them to find a vaccine for Covid. Why don't YOU think of a solution if you think it's that easy? Oh right, you can't.

Where are you from so I can tell you what your state is doing wrong any why you are so bad at everything?

Texas?
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Last edited by jmg; 10-28-2020 at 02:48 AM..
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