[isleaiw1]

Originally Posted by KCH1984

https://www.merseyside.police.uk/new...cident-on-m62/

I doubt that one will get the same level of publicity...

[JD6]

Originally Posted by KCH1984

https://www.merseyside.police.uk/new...cident-on-m62/

Over the years I’ve heard a few of these runaway car stories. With the exception of the disability conversion car they all seem highly improbable - brakes are far stronger than the engine. Perhaps more than half of the time, the police investigate and then arrest the driver.

[Wills2]

1st qtr registrations are in, BEV share declined YoY in March and is flat YTD at 15.5% vs the target of 22%, interesting that the YoY decline in March matched the diesel market decline of 1%.

I think it's safe to say that the adoption rate has hit the bump stops (9 qtrs of flat market share is a trend), not sure what the answer is although a growing economy would help. Inflation does appear to be under control however they can't reduce interest rates as the pound would tumble causing inflation.

In other news BMW are having an incredible time, up 40% YTD and the second biggest brand by volume, Jag have also pulled it out of the bag and have doubled their sales YTD which is pleasing.

[crAbb]

Originally Posted by Wills2

1st qtr registrations are in, BEV share declined YoY in March and is flat YTD at 15.5% vs the target of 22%, interesting that the YoY decline in March matched the diesel market decline of 1%.

I think it's safe to say that the adoption rate has hit the bump stops (9 qtrs of flat market share is a trend), not sure what the answer is although a growing economy would help. Inflation does appear to be under control however they can't reduce interest rates as the pound would tumble causing inflation.

In other news BMW are having an incredible time, up 40% YTD and the second biggest brand by volume, Jag have also pulled it out of the bag and have doubled their sales YTD which is pleasing.

Manufacturers are beginning to understand that the majority of us don't want duracell cars. Hybrids might be the politicians get out of jail car, for their catastrophically slavish punt on BEVs.

[Wills2]

I thought about the ramifications of the current flat market share of EVs vs the UK mandate and the £15k fine that will levied per vehicle sold over the 78%/72% threshold over 2024/25.

If we take the the current EV market share trend which is a 16% share flat for 9 quarters in a row and push that share and flat growth trend out across the rest of the year and through 2025 the projection is rather alarming.

If we forecast overall vehicles sales in 2024 and 25 and match them to 2023's performance (I don't think total market growth or decline materially affects the projection)

If the current trend continues for 2024 then either £1.6 billion worth of fines will be levied in 2024 and £3.3billion in 2025 (neither the consumer or the brands will be able to sustain that) or the brands will have to manipulate the number of ICE vehicles sold, if that happens then we will see a collapse in the UKs new car market as follows:

2023 1.9million sales EV 16% share.
2024 1.4million sales EV 22% share.
2025 1.1 million sales EV 28% share.

At the current adoption rate the only way the market can hit those gates and be at 28% at the end of 2025 is for the new car market to retract by close to 45%.

I don't understand why HEV and PHEV were not included in the adoption % they'd have romped through those gates and then been able to have a phase two transition to BEV, seems like another ill thought out arbitrary government target.

The straight jacket of the BEV % target vs the more flexible approach the EU took (fleet average Co2) seems another misguided attempt to grab headlines whilst not having a chance in hell of ever achieving the goal.

[Bryans69]

Originally Posted by Wills2

The straight jacket of the BEV % target vs the more flexible approach the EU took (fleet average Co2) seems another misguided attempt to grab headlines whilst not having a chance in hell of ever achieving the goal.

EU have been told our approach is better......

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/c...r-fuel-economy