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I think it's close to 50/50 either right at MSRP or above at least in the Orange County/riverside/LA counties of Southern California. I've called lots of dealers and on the waiting list at 5 of them "promising" MSRP. About half of the ones I called clearly indicate they will be asking above msrp but that's just in my area. If you look at it from the perspective there will be 700 cars and ~350 dealers in the US and what is expected to be a highly anticipated and well reviewed car and you have yourself the perfect recipe for dealer markups. This car will be scarce, really scarce for quite a while.
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