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Well... yes there is some definite errors in your methodology, and likely not in your favor...
1) Edmunds is a terrible source for data regarding real values. So thats not blue book thats Edmunds data unless Edmunds pulls data from Kelly blue book (not sure). KBB.Com would be blue book. They'll give you different data. As will NADA, Black Book, Manheim, and carfax. LOL. it's all just guesses except manheim, that shows real dealer transactions.
2) You're comparing wholesale value to retail value. This shouldn't come as a shock that wholesale values are lower than retail, thats how it works in pretty much any industry for the business to make money/margin. So when you say you go to sell in 2 years do you mean trade in? Because selling yourself private party vs trading in to a dealer you could likely get more. There is also tax credits to deal with, are you trading in something now? do live where there is sales tax? does that state offer tax credits on trade in? A lot of information you need to be able to build a good comparison, and I dont have time to get in to all of it right now.
However... No your numbers aren't right, assuming a couple things.... which brings me to point 3....
3) the screenshots dont show what values you entered for miles and condition. So if you entered 11,000 miles for the retail purchase value, and kept 11,000 miles and excellent condition for the the trade-in part, you're way off, unless you put no miles on it, and traded it in the next day. But youll have 2 years worth of miles on it over 11,000 so maybe assume the car would have 30-40k miles after 2 years? that will bring that 72,000.00 number down significantly... Not sure how much you drive. But even if you didn't drive 1 mile, and kept for 2 years, cars depreciate each month, whether driven or not. Each month and year its a month and year older, regardless if you put miles on it.
Soooo... with that said...
in order to get an even remotely accurate view of a trade in value 2 years from now you need to input a 2020 model with 35,000 miles, and change the condition to "good" and that will give you a more accurate sense of what a 2022 will be worth in 2 years compared to a 2022 now. ... HOWEVER....
This guarantees nothing. The automotive market conditions could change dramatically positive or negative with in the next 24 months, theres no way to predict what the car will actually be worth, but the best gauge would be looking at a 2020 with the amount of miles you assume youll drive, and the condition youll assume it would be in. compare that number to the 2022 now, and that will give you an assumption of how much youll actually lose in 2 years time.
But yes, this is nothing new, BMWs, MB, AUDI, depreciate, a lot as do ALL cars. and 38,000.00 from new to 2 years old with 11k miles is probably accurate for trade in. But again you're comparing retail to wholesale.
The depreciation estimate from new 110k, in your example should be from 110k to 86k, which is 24K. essentially 20-25% from new. Which is actually pretty good. The trade in/whole sale value is only relevant if you're comparing what a BMW dealer's cost /invoice/minus rebates hold backs & dealer incentives was, when the car was new. which would be the equivalent of "wholesale" then.
Cars depreciate, this is nothing new. What (was) new is the lack of supply 2-3 years ago that drove prices way up. But thats a complete anomaly and should never be factored in to valuations today, or any time in the future. Unless another "world wide pandemic" occurs (cough cough, bullsh*t).
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